Water FractalTier 2
at Collinsville Regionals
decks
24
(15.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
123
56-60-7
overall winrate
48.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1349
· median 1337
· range 1039–1689
(24 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1268
Q3 1432
1689
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 17 | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 47.6% | 45.8% | -1.7 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 46.7% | -1.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 42.3% | -3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +5.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.4% | -2.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 43.0% | -3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -2.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -6.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 8 | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 27.3% | -10.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.4% | +9.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.2% | +9.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.3% | +5.9 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.1% | +10.7 |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.5% | +17.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.8% | +11.8 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 24 from this event
The 24 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Orb of Hubris, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Water Resonance Bauble. Losers more often ran: Fractal of Refreshment, Chill to the Bone, Fast Cure.
Orb of Hubris
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Coronation Ceremony
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Art of War
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Fractal of Refreshment
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Chill to the Bone
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Fractal of Intrusion
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 66 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Hubris | +0.50 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.40 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.30 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.20 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissonant Fractal | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Fracturize | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Burst Asunder | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Disenchant | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Art of War | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Formidable Youxia | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dawn of Ashes | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palace Guard | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Maiden of Shimmering Air | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |